Five Reasons Why I'm an Idiot by Tom Verducci

Five pitchers who could make a big jump in 2008

Verducci starts out by praising Beckett as the second coming.

Beckett didn't come out of nowhere. He was the World Series MVP with the Marlins in 2003, and he did win 16 games in 2006, albeit with a 5.01 ERA.

Through the shear force of his Texan charm, Josh Beckett willed his team to win 16 games even though he pitched five percent worse than the average big leaguer. That's a legit ace.

I know that Luddites like Tom Verducci don't want to use defense-independent-ERA and stats like that. But when they contradict their own points, doesn't it sink in that Wins are very misleading.

He then goes on to explain how Josh Beckett improved between '06 and '07.

It all began with a simple challenge for himself: he wanted to cut his walks in half. He nearly did, too, cutting them from 74 to 40.

I'm sure it has nothing to do with this (hat tip to IIATMS):

• May 17, 2007: Finger injury, 15-day DL.
• May 14, 2007: Finger injury, day-to-day.
• Oct 4, 2005: Missed the last 17 games of the regular season.
• Oct 2, 2005: Missed 8 games to the end of the regular season (shoulder injury).
• Sep 28, 2005: Shoulder injury, day-to-day.
• Sep 15, 2005: Achilles tendon, day-to-day.
• Jul 30, 2005: Missed 14 games (lower back strain).
• Jul 23, 2005: Missed 13 games (oblique injury).
• Jul 15, 2005: Lower back strain, 15-day DL.
• Jul 8, 2005: Oblique injury, 15-day DL.
• Jul 5, 2005: Oblique injury, day-to-day.
• Jun 30, 2005: Missed 13 games (blister).
• Jun 17, 2005: Blister, 15-day DL (retroactive to Jun 15).
• Jun 15, 2005: Blister, day-to-day.

Josh Beckett has an injury history to set your watch to. I know he wasn't DL'ed in '06 but his control issues hint that he played through some blister or shoulder problems that were lingering from late '05. His improvement in '07 was probably due to a mostly injury-free season. And now, to nobody's surprise, he's experiencing back problems again.

OK, onto his choices for the next big "breakout" pitchers:

1. Felix Hernandez - I don't hate this choice. But he quotes Mel Stottlemyre and, as a Yankee's fan, the mere presence of Mel in the same stadium means that this kid is going to get his shoulder buried into the dirt.
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka - There's an argument to be made that Daisuke is now stretched out and can perform in a full American 162-game season. Verducci opts, instead, to say that Daisuke will improve because he's fatter now. Also, he notes that:

He did win 15 games and strike out more than 200 batters. Only four other pitchers did that in their first year: Gooden, Mark Langston, Herb Score and Pete Alexander.

That would be really impressive if it actually were his rookie year. I know it technically is, but why make the analogy if you know it doesn't apply? Also, again with the wins?!
3. Chad Billingsley - I guess... not really controversial.
4. Pedro Martinez - Well, come on, wouldn't he have to! He pitched 28 innings last season.
5. Dontrelle Willis - This is the kicker. Dontrelle Willis is going to bring his 1.6 WHIP into the AL Central and dominate? He's been imploding for the past three seasons. He'll be eaten alive.

Also, where's Phil Hughes? He's a universally accepted ace-type prospect who's about to enter his first full season and is showing amazing stuff in ST (not that I expect Verducci to be watching ST.)